Crypto Native Capital on Bitcoin

Crypto Native Capital believes bitcoin is approaching the historically favorable re-entry portion of its four-year cycle after nine months of a bear market. The fund had previously de-risked 25% into cash because leverage was elevated and expected forward returns appeared poor late in the prior cycle. Cash subsequently grew to 44% of the portfolio, leaving the fund with significant dry powder as bitcoin traded around half of its October price. The manager notes that the prior three bear markets bottomed roughly 12 to 13 months after their peaks, placing September through year-end inside the historical bottoming window. Rather than attempting to identify the precise low, the strategy plans to dollar-cost average into bitcoin through year-end. The manager also believes forced and persistent selling from digital asset treasury companies may create the type of weakness for which this cash position was deliberately raised.