Eagle Capital Management, LLC on ConocoPhillips
Thesis
ConocoPhillips owns low-cost, long-lived upstream inventory that Eagle believes the market underappreciates relative to peers. Free cash flow should rise as the Willow project in Alaska transitions from a cash-consuming development project to a producing asset. Eagle sees the oil market as broadly balanced but believes supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz create upside skew over the next couple of years.
“its free cash flow should inflect higher as the Willow project in Alaska comes online.”
Key risks
- Oil-market outcomes remain sensitive to the timing and durability of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.