GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund on ImmunityBio, Inc.
Thesis
ImmunityBio's valuation is being assessed against the commercial capacity of its Anktiva franchise. The manager highlights manufacturing facilities capable of producing one million vials annually and estimates that already secured regulatory approvals imply an addressable market above $5.8 billion of annual revenue even using materially discounted drug pricing. If U.S. approval for lung-cancer treatment follows by 2028, the fund's modeling suggests the addressable revenue opportunity could exceed $43 billion per year. The thesis therefore rests on a large installed manufacturing base, very high trailing gross margins, and the potential expansion of a therapy the manager views as best in class.
“my work suggests the regulatory approvals already secured imply an addressable market above $5.8bn in revenues per annum, at a 99% trailing gross margin.”
Key risks
- U.S. lung-cancer approval may not be achieved by 2028.
- The addressable-market estimates depend on the fund's drug-pricing assumptions.