GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund on Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Thesis
The fund views SpaceX as one of the closest examples of enduring monopolistic positioning in the modern market. At month-end, the shares traded at 23.1x consensus 2028 earnings despite consensus expectations for 87% revenue growth that year, which the manager contrasted with much slower-growing consumer businesses on similar or higher multiples. The shares were also about 43% cheaper on an EV-to-sales basis than at the December 2025 private tender because revenue expectations had risen much faster than the stock price. The manager added to SpaceX in July and believes forced index buying after lockup expiries could overwhelm available sellers.
“SpaceX is also as close to enduring monopolistic positioning as the modern market offers.”
Key risks
- Post-IPO lockup expiries could create near-term selling pressure.
- The expected balance between forced index buying and unlocked sellers may not develop as anticipated.