GreenWood Investors LLC on The Swatch Group AG
Thesis
GreenWood's Swatch thesis combines improving watch-industry fundamentals with the potential for significant governance reform. Bearer shareholders gave GreenWood approximately 80% support to represent their share class on the board, yet the company appointed another director, leading GreenWood to pursue three legal actions in Swiss courts. The fund believes greater accountability could materially improve outcomes at a company whose governance has historically been the weakest part of the investment case. At the same time, secondary watch values have been improving for more than a year, US-dollar industry sales continue to compound at double-digit rates and younger consumers provide a favorable secular demand backdrop. With margins near depressed levels, GreenWood sees high sensitivity to incremental revenue growth, while elevated short interest could amplify upside if fundamentals and governance improve together.
“we are encouraged by the impact that we can have in the coming months on top of the solidly improving industry dynamics”
Key risks
- China's recovery in luxury watch demand has taken longer than expected
- GreenWood's legal and shareholder efforts may fail to produce the desired governance changes