Greystone Capital Management LLC on Natural Resource Partners L.P.
Thesis
Natural Resource Partners owns coal and soda-ash royalty interests, and weak commodity conditions have left the shares flat to down despite Greystone's longer-term thesis. The Sisecam Wyoming joint venture recently required a $39 million cash infusion, but Greystone's work suggests this should be a one-time event and that soda ash can eventually become a much larger royalty contributor. The royalty structure limits direct commodity-price exposure through minimum payments, while the balance sheet is now strong enough to tolerate lower prices and support sustained distributions of excess free cash flow. Greystone sees additional upside from normalization in soda ash, stronger coal prices, carbon-capture optionality and supply disruptions.
“I remain confident that upside is greater than 100% of today’s price over time, with a strong margin of safety underpinning our investment.”
Key risks
- Weak soda ash pricing and additional cash needs at the Sisecam Wyoming joint venture
- Near-term oversupply in coal markets
- Lower thermal and metallurgical coal prices