Greystone Capital Management LLC on Pitney Bowes Inc.
Thesis
Greystone views Pitney Bowes as a turnaround whose true economics remain obscured by its legacy reputation as a declining mail company and years of GAAP losses from restructuring and the divested ecommerce business. SendTech has a sticky installed base, high renewal rates and substantial barriers to entry, while Presort benefits from national scale, fixed-cost operating leverage and industry consolidation. New management has cut costs, corrected Presort pricing, repurchased substantial amounts of stock and is prioritizing rational capital allocation. At roughly a 15% free-cash-flow yield in the letter, Greystone believes the valuation remains undemanding, with additional upside from debt reduction, a possible bank monetization and the strategic review. A sale is viewed as potential upside rather than a requirement for the thesis.
“Our investment has increased nearly +70% on our average cost, but my view is that intrinsic value remains meaningfully above today's price.”
Key risks
- Ongoing secular declines in physical mail volumes
- Execution risk in the Presort recovery and deleveraging
- The strategic review may not result in a sale