Hayden Capital, LLC on Sea Limited
Thesis
Hayden believes Shopee's current reinvestment program is generating increasingly attractive returns and strengthening the business rather than merely defending it against competitors such as TikTok Shop. VIP membership reached 14 million and now represents 24% of GMV, while retention remained at 80% and monthly active buyers accelerated to 18% year-over-year. Hayden estimates incremental ROIC improved from approximately 26% to 38%, helped by roughly 40% quarter-over-quarter VIP membership growth and higher take rates. The fund sees the logistics investment as driving greater customer frequency, loyalty and competitive positioning. These results provide early confirmation of Hayden's thesis that Shopee could follow a path similar to Amazon, where near-term profitability is sacrificed for investments that ultimately create a structurally stronger and more valuable business.
“the investment program is making the business structurally stronger, not just defending its existing position.”
Key risks
- The reinvestment program could generate lower returns than Hayden estimates.
- Competitive pressure from TikTok Shop and other ecommerce platforms could require continued elevated spending.
- The ROIC calculations rely on assumptions and are not precise.