Hennessy Focus Fund on AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect ordinary smartphones directly. The fund believes AST's broadband capability and integration with mobile network operators differentiate it from Starlink Mobile, which it describes as slower, narrowband and increasingly positioned as a direct competitor to carriers. The thesis is strengthened by strategic relationships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Google, plus expanding U.S. defense applications. Although launch setbacks have delayed a roughly 45-satellite constellation to mid-to-late 2027, the managers view the company as well funded and expect two to three constellations operating within two years. As revenue scales over a relatively fixed satellite cost base, they see substantial operating leverage and earnings growth from a large unserved global market.
“Ultimately, AST is addressing a massive, unserved global market”
Key risks
- Launch setbacks at Blue Origin delayed the expected 45-satellite constellation until mid-to-late 2027.
- Starlink Mobile is increasingly being positioned as a direct competitor rather than a partner to mobile network operators.