Horos Value Internacional on Suzano S.A.
Thesis
Horos initiated a position in Suzano after reallocating capital away from stainless steel. Suzano is the world's largest pulp producer, with capacity almost three times that of its nearest competitor, and has expanded into packaging and tissue through both organic and inorganic investments. Its shares have been pressured by heavy investment, weak pulp prices, China's slowdown and uncertainty around Chinese vertical integration. Horos believes Suzano's industry-leading cost position allows it to endure the downcycle and emerge stronger, while family ownership improves alignment and the current valuation is attractive.
“Against this negative sentiment stands the most cost-efficient company in the sector”
Key risks
- Persistently weak pulp prices
- Economic slowdown in China
- Chinese vertical integration could pressure industry economics
- Heavy capital investment could weigh on returns