Mar Vista Investment Partners, LLC on NVIDIA Corporation
Thesis
Mar Vista believes NVIDIA's current valuation does not fully reflect the durability of its competitive position or the breadth of its long-term AI infrastructure opportunities. Its CUDA software ecosystem remains the industry standard for developing and deploying AI workloads, reinforcing NVIDIA's position as the preferred computing platform for hyperscalers, neocloud providers and major AI developers. The proliferation of open-source large language models should expand AI adoption and reinforce demand for NVIDIA's integrated hardware and software ecosystem. The Vera Rubin platform is beginning its production ramp in the second half of 2026, while management expects the Vera CPU opportunity to generate approximately $20 billion in revenue during the second half of fiscal 2027 and approximately $40 billion in fiscal 2028. Mar Vista believes the annual product cadence, integrated system performance and compelling performance-per-watt economics provide substantial competitive advantages as AI infrastructure investment expands.
“CUDA remains the dominant software ecosystem for developing and deploying these models”
Key risks
- Questions surrounding the economic returns on hyperscaler AI investments could lead to reduced infrastructure spending.
- The enormous amount of capital entering AI infrastructure could eventually produce diminishing incremental returns.
- Rising interest rates and elevated valuations across leading AI companies could compress valuation multiples.
- A slowdown in adoption of AI applications or open-source models could weaken the expected demand trajectory for computing infrastructure.