Optimist Fund on ThredUp Inc.
Thesis
ThredUp's active buyers, orders and revenue all beat expectations, growing 25%, 19% and 15% year over year, while management guided to an acceleration across those trends. The Q1 beat was incorporated into full-year guidance that the fund continues to view as conservative. The direct-listing program expanded from closed to open beta, and the average direct-listed item sold at more than twice the price of the average clean-out-kit item, suggesting the program is capturing supply ThredUp was not previously seeing. The fund has included nothing material from direct listings in its five-year estimates, leaving the program as additional upside optionality.
“We've baked nothing material from direct listings into our five-year estimates meaning the program is free upside optionality.”