Orbis Investment Management Limited on Nebius Group
Thesis
Orbis continues to hold Nebius after trimming the position into strength. Its conviction rests on the quality of management and a credible pathway to more than 4GW of data-centre capacity by 2031, more than four times current capacity. Orbis estimates that this capacity could support more than $50 billion of revenue versus roughly $2 billion today at healthy margins. The current $70 billion market capitalisation is viewed as supportable by the core business, while stakes in Avride, ClickHouse and Toloka provide an estimated additional $15 billion of value and a margin of safety. Orbis nevertheless reduced some AI exposure as valuations increasingly began to price very bullish outcomes.
“our continued conviction rests on the high calibre management team and on the economics we see ahead.”
Key risks
- The long-term economics of the AI ecosystem have a wide distribution of fundamental outcomes
- Some current AI usage may be supported by deliberately low token pricing rather than durable revenue models
- Growing AI market exuberance can cause valuations to price unusually bullish outcomes