Overstone International Value Fund on Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Thesis
Samsung benefited from strong demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI chips and from a shortage in DRAM. The fund notes that DRAM spot prices had risen almost ninefold over the prior year and that operating margins were estimated above 50%. Capacity takes years to add and customers are increasingly willing to sign long-term purchase agreements, supporting cash generation. The fund expects Samsung to generate almost $600bn of cash by the end of 2028, but it has been reducing the position because the risk-reward has become less attractive.
“In the meantime, Samsung is expected to generate vast amounts of cash: almost $600bn by the end of 2028.”
Key risks
- Memory margins are likely to decline over the medium term
- The fund believes the risk-reward has become less attractive and has been reducing the position