Overstone International Value Fund on ArcelorMittal S.A.

ArcelorMittal has historically faced pressure from Chinese imports in its European steel business. The fund sees an improving setup after the EU tightened trade measures by nearly halving import quotas and raising the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. Based on current assumptions, these measures could add more than $2bn to group EBITDA from a $6.5bn base. The catalyst is significant, although the measures are new and their precise impact remains uncertain.