Praetorian Capital on St. Joe
Thesis
JOE owns 165,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle and is set to benefit from a major population migration away from large cities. The company is expected to experience rapid revenue and earnings growth, yet it trades at an attractive multiple, with its substantial land assets being undervalued by the market. The shares are seen as a way to invest in the trend of wealthy individuals moving to more peaceful, low-tax areas.
“I believe we are witnessing a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful. I suspect that every convulsion of urban chaos and/or tax-the-rich scheming will launch JOE shares higher, and it will ultimately be seen as the way to “play” the stream of very wealthy refugees fleeing for somewhere better.”
Key risks
- The expected population migration to the Florida Panhandle could be slower than anticipated or fail to materialize.