Praetorian Capital on Marex
Thesis
Marex is a structural beneficiary of elevated commodity volatility and trading volumes. The company is taking market share, growing revenues, and is expected to earn well in excess of $5 and more like $6 a share in 2027, which at a 20x multiple suggests a fair value of $120 per share.
“I now expect Marex to earn well in excess of $5 and more like $6 a share in 2027. Putting a 20 times earnings multiple on that (it’s a business that grew revenues 27% in 2025 with a 27.6% ROE), gets you to $120 a share for a fair value as we begin to approach next year, when compared to $44.58 at quarter end—which is quite the mismatch.”