Smoak Capital, LP / Smoak Capital Management, LLC on Azeus Systems Holdings Limited
Thesis
Azeus has been pressured by broad fears that AI will disrupt software and by an unexpected reduction in its large Hong Kong government CERKS contract. The manager argues that its Convene board-portal product is fundamentally different from expensive seat-based software because it is inexpensive, mission-critical and stores highly sensitive information under strict security and regulatory requirements. A low-cost development base and broad geographic diversification further reduce the company's vulnerability to AI-driven pricing and cost disruption. The core board-portal business is still growing around 20% annually, while expected dividends over the next 15 months represent roughly 10% to 12% of the share price. On the manager's FY28 look-through numbers, the stock could offer a 7% to 10% yield after adjusting for dividends received.
“I’m also comfortable continuing to hold Azeus, despite the AI-disruption fears hanging over software.”
Key risks
- Further fallout from the CERKS contract dispute
- AI-driven disruption of software businesses