LongXYZJuly 31, 2026

Third Point Offshore Fund, Ltd. / Third Point LLC on Block Inc.

Thesis

Third Point believes Block is shifting from a user-acquisition story to a deeper monetization and earnings-compounding story. Nationwide approval for Cash App Borrow allows Block to originate loans through its own banking subsidiary, giving it greater control over underwriting, pricing and economics while monetizing an existing user base at low incremental acquisition cost. Proprietary real-time transaction data and automatic repayment features have supported repayment rates approaching 97%, and Borrow also appears to improve retention, engagement and spending across other Cash App products. Square's merchant business is simultaneously improving through direct sales and partner channels, while a roughly 40% headcount reduction creates operating leverage if AI-enabled teams can maintain product velocity. Third Point sees Block's distribution, proprietary data and founder-led willingness to redesign workflows around AI as an underappreciated competitive advantage.

We see the next chapter as deeper monetization, and we believe the market is underestimating both the magnitude and the quality of that opportunity.
Third Point Offshore Fund, Ltd. / Third Point LLC — Second Quarter 2026 Investor Letter

Key risks

  • Cash App Borrow credit performance deteriorates as lending scales
  • The large headcount reduction and AI-enabled reorganization disrupt product execution
  • Square's renewed merchant growth and market-share gains fail to persist