Unconventional Value on Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Thesis
Pagaya became the portfolio's largest position after Gallagher redeployed much of the proceeds from trimming Planet Labs. He views Pagaya as a data network positioned to benefit as AI transforms consumer-lending infrastructure, with differentiated multi-asset-class application data from more than 30 partners becoming increasingly valuable as AI models commoditise. Its pre-funded ABS model reduces liquidity risk, its partner-led distribution supports efficient growth, and network expansion should create operating leverage and visibility into durable growth. At roughly 8-12x guided 2026 earnings during much of the first half, Gallagher viewed the valuation as unusually attractive for a business he believes can compound at 15-20% or more over the long haul.
“At its core, I think of Pagaya as a data network.”
Key risks
- The investor side of the network depends on Pagaya continuing to meet investors' required returns.
- Headline growth has slowed because of the decision to step back from single-family rentals.
- The thesis depends on successful ramping of new partners and broader products beyond second-look lending.