LongPGYJuly 27, 2026

Unconventional Value on Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Thesis

Pagaya became the portfolio's largest position after Gallagher redeployed much of the proceeds from trimming Planet Labs. He views Pagaya as a data network positioned to benefit as AI transforms consumer-lending infrastructure, with differentiated multi-asset-class application data from more than 30 partners becoming increasingly valuable as AI models commoditise. Its pre-funded ABS model reduces liquidity risk, its partner-led distribution supports efficient growth, and network expansion should create operating leverage and visibility into durable growth. At roughly 8-12x guided 2026 earnings during much of the first half, Gallagher viewed the valuation as unusually attractive for a business he believes can compound at 15-20% or more over the long haul.

At its core, I think of Pagaya as a data network.
Unconventional Value — Mid Year 2026 – Public Investment Letter

Key risks

  • The investor side of the network depends on Pagaya continuing to meet investors' required returns.
  • Headline growth has slowed because of the decision to step back from single-family rentals.
  • The thesis depends on successful ramping of new partners and broader products beyond second-look lending.