William Blair Growth Fund on Carlyle Group
Thesis
Carlyle is an alternative asset manager spanning corporate private equity, real assets and credit. Shares fell on redemption concerns and a mixed earnings report, with fee-related earnings and performance-related revenues below expectations while capital raising remained strong. The fund maintained the position and expects capital raising to remain relatively stable over an intermediate horizon, with faster growth in credit, secondaries, co-investments and other non-corporate-private-equity areas. It considers investor concerns about private equity and performance-related earnings cyclical rather than structural, leaving the long-term risk/reward compelling.
“The long-term risk/reward for the stock is compelling”
Key risks
- Redemption concerns across alternative asset managers
- Weak fee-related earnings and performance-related revenues
- Pressure on corporate private-equity capital raising