LongMUAugust 7, 2026

Ashva Capital Management LLC on Micron Technology

Thesis

Micron is Ashva Capital's largest position because the fund believes the economics of the historically cyclical memory industry may be becoming structurally more attractive. AI is driving enormous demand for HBM, conventional data-center DRAM and NAND while HBM itself consumes disproportionate wafer capacity and new fabrication capacity takes years to build. Strategic customer agreements with take-or-pay provisions and customer deposits are increasing visibility into future volume, pricing and returns on new capacity, potentially reducing the severity of future memory downcycles. Micron's earnings and free cash flow have inflected sharply while its valuation still assumes significant mean reversion. Ashva therefore believes normalized earnings may ultimately settle materially above historical levels, creating an asymmetric opportunity where business quality, earnings power and predictability are improving simultaneously.

We believe we are buying a business whose quality, earnings power, and predictability may all be improving simultaneously.
Ashva Capital Management LLC — Ashva Capital Management LLC – Q2 2026 Letter to Investors

Key risks

  • Declines in DRAM and NAND pricing
  • Hyperscalers reducing AI spending
  • Competitors adding excessive capacity
  • Manufacturing problems with HBM4 or HBM4E
  • Intensifying Korean competition
  • Gross-margin deterioration before new supply becomes available
  • Weakening data-center demand while capital expenditure continues rising
  • Material reductions in expected fiscal 2027 earnings

Related ideas