Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund on Micron Technology Inc.
Thesis
Micron is part of Minotaur's core memory thesis that AI demand is outrunning supply and that the cycle should persist longer than the market expects. The fund highlights roughly $100 billion of contracted revenue at minimum prices under take-or-pay agreements, backed by about $22 billion of customer deposits and commitments, as evidence of a contractual floor under the downturn. It also expects memory economics to benefit as HBM4 repricing arrives in 2027. After trimming Micron for concentration reasons in June, Minotaur began buying it back in the second half of July when the shares were about 31% below the price of its last June sale.
“at Micron the floor is contractual and documented, roughly $100 billion of contracted revenue at minimum prices under take-or-pay agreements”
Key risks
- A hyperscaler capex cut would weaken memory demand.
- Supplier inventory accumulation would challenge the shortage thesis.
- AI and server demand could normalise.
- Contracted pricing can limit participation in a sharp spot-price spike.