LongMUJuly 30, 2026

Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund / Minotaur Capital Management Pty Ltd on Micron Technology, Inc.

Thesis

Minotaur sees Micron as a beneficiary of the same AI-driven memory shortage that supports its broader memory thesis. A key difference from prior cycles is the contractual structure of demand: Micron has roughly $100 billion of contracted revenue at minimum prices under take-or-pay agreements, backed by about $22 billion of customer deposits and commitments. Those contracts help put a floor under a future downturn, even though they can cap some upside when spot pricing spikes. After cutting the position for concentration reasons in June, the fund began buying Micron again in the second half of July after a sharp price decline, arguing that the earnings evidence remained intact while deleveraging drove much of the selloff.

We have begun adding back, buying Micron and Nvidia in the second half of July.
Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund / Minotaur Capital Management Pty Ltd — Minotaur Quarterly - June 2026

Key risks

  • A hyperscaler capex cut
  • An inventory build at a memory supplier
  • Demand normalising in the AI and server channel
  • Contracted pricing may limit upside during sharp memory-price spikes

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