Optimist LP Fund and Optimist Trust Fund, managed by BloombergSen Inc. on ThredUp Inc.
Thesis
ThredUp’s active buyers, orders, and revenue all beat expectations, growing 25%, 19%, and 15% year over year, and management guided to acceleration across those trends. Optimist views full-year guidance as conservative after the Q1 beat was flowed through. The direct-listing program moved from closed to open beta, and the average direct-listed item has sold for more than twice the price of the average clean-out-kit item, suggesting the program is attracting incremental supply. Because the fund has included nothing material from direct listings in its five-year estimates, it treats the initiative as upside optionality.
“We've baked nothing material from direct listings into our five-year estimates meaning the program is free upside optionality.”
Key risks
- Direct-listing adoption and monetization may not scale as expected
- Growth could fall short of the acceleration implied by management guidance